Tuesday, September 17

Israel Comes Clean.

Turns out,
arming the terrorist rebels, overthrowing Assad, and leaving the remaining Syrians behind in the al-Qaeda-led aftermath is in Israel's strategic best interest all along...

The Israeli ambassador told the United States that Israel has wanted to see Syrian President Bashar al-Assad removed from power since before the outbreak of war in Syria- a shift from its publicly-stated position.

It sees his defeat by rebels who include al Qaeda-linked Islamists as preferable to his current alliance with Iran, ambassador Michael Oren said.
...
"The initial message about the Syrian issue was that we always wanted Bashar Assad to go, we always preferred the bad guys who weren't backed by Iran to the bad guys who were backed by Iran." Oren said.

He also said that this was Israel's position well before the outbreak of war in Syria and had continued to be so.
Hmm...
I wonder if our intelligence agencies were privvy to the info, and it was just the public kept in the dark.
Oren went on to say that Assad's overthrow would also weaken the alliance between Israel's arc foe Iran and Tehran-backed Lebanese Hezbollah guerrillas.

"The greatest danger to Israel is by the strategic arc that extends from Tehran, to Damascus to Beirut. And we saw the Assad regime as the keystone in that arc.

Oren described al Qaeda-aligned rebels as 'pretty bad guys' but said that others were less radical.

Israel believes around one in 10 Syrian rebels are Sunni militants sworn to its destruction. Assad's Alawite sect is closer to the rival Shi'ite Islam of Iran and Hezbollah.
Wow.
Thank heavens the United States is so much better positioned geographically, for all our talk of 'securing the borders' in recent years.

Strategically,
the mainland protection of two oceans, one internally stable and reliable ally, and another whose bloody criminal confrontrations we monitor at a distance, allow Americans more breathing room...

This is where independence, and geography, show their value: in any nation, civil wars prove endlessly bloody -- a fight to the end; American can afford to keep out of Syria's and indeed, might humanely prove better off on the sidelines than to keep the fight going by continually supplying the latest weapons to the bloodbath. Don't confuse neutrality with isolationism.

Geopolitically,
it's more difficult for Israel, who might be tempted to ... more actively interfere in Syria's Civil War, which first began with peaceful protests and has greatly escalated since, with over 100,000 Syrians already dead and millions of civilians displaced in the ill-fated attempt to overthrow the Assad regime.
In the interview, excerpted ahead of its publication in full on Friday, Oren - a Netanyahu confidant - did not say if or how Israel was promoting Assad's fall.
...
His comments in an interview with the Jerusalem Post marked a move in Israel's public position on the civil war in Syria. Though old enemies, a stable stand-off has endured between the two countries during Assad's rule.
...
The Jewish state, which is widely assumed to have the region's sole atomic arsenal, has played down any direct Syrian threat to it but is concerned that a weak Western policy towards Assad could encourage Iran.

Netanyahu casts Iran's disputed nuclear drive as the main threat to Israel and world stability.

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ADDED:
Interesting to read now what was being said back in April...
Many officials, including the hawkish Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman, say that Assad's tough crackdown on his own people has robbed him of any legitimacy to remain in power.
...
Others believe Assad's departure would weaken what the Israelis call Iran's "axis of evil" in the region — the anti-Israel alliance of Iran, Syria, Lebanon's Hezbollah guerrilla group and Hamas militants in the Gaza Strip. Fears that Assad might attack Israel to divert attention from his domestic troubles have also subsided. Some even believe he will be replaced by a moderate, Western-leaning government.
...


Although Israeli officials now believe Assad's days are numbered, they say they are keeping their distance from the key players in Syria. They do not want to be seen as intervening in Syrian affairs. For this reason, officials say, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has been extremely careful with his public statements, condemning the bloodshed but saying nothing about the future of Syria.

Foreign Ministry spokesman Yigal Palmor said Israel would welcome international action against Assad, just as international action in Libya helped oust the late Moammar Gadhafi. But he said Israel is not openly pressuring the West to take action.

"We know our place. It's not for us to give advice," he said. "We're not doing anything to make him go. We're not getting involved or even thinking of any interference."

Palmor said Israel has no idea who might replace Assad. But Israeli security officials believe that if Assad goes, there is a good chance that a moderate, Sunni, Western-leaning government will take his place.

Officials said this assessment is based on "the latest intelligence" and the belief that Syria is far different from Egypt, where Islamic parties have risen in influence since President Hosni Mubarak was ousted last year. They declined to elaborate and acknowledged they are uncertain what lies ahead, speaking on condition of anonymity because they were discussing a sensitive security assessment.

Alon Liel, a former director general of the Israeli Foreign Ministry, said he met with opposition figures in Turkey several weeks ago. Liel said he believes fundamentalist Muslims are not so influential in Syria as they are in Egypt.