Oh you...
Telling me the things you're gonna do for me...
Wow — a lot of misinformation about the new estimates on health care costs. Read Ezra Klein, who concludes:The question remains ... is it constitutional to force healthy, independent people under penalty of law to purchase a product on the private market that they don't want, and don't consume, in order to subsidize a private industry? If not, the numbers don't work.So, the nickel version: Spending goes up in 2014 because we’re covering 30 million new people and then down after that because we’re controlling costs in the system.
So yes, there’s a bump when 35 million people who would otherwise have been uninsured get coverage; but growth is slower after that, which will mean big savings in the long run. It really doesn’t matter at all whether your estimate says that overall health spending will be slightly higher or slightly lower in 2019 as a result of the law; aside from the fact that covering all those people with at most a minimal rise in costs is itself a policy triumph, it’s spending in the decades that follow that matters for cost.
And let’s be clear: you could not have gotten the cost savings without the move to near-universal coverage, for both political and technical reasons. This thing really is a package — a package that, with all its flaws, both makes our society more decent and improves our long-run budget outlook.
I suppose we'll see in 2014 some accountability from the numbers guys who are going to stand by their 2010 optimistic predictions, just like we see the profession stepping up and accepting responsibility for the current fiscal mess, eh?
It must be the Life of Riley to be an ineffectual Eeyore economist today: "Oh what a mess we're in... Only gonna get worse folks. But I got it right predicting this misery; too bad nobody listens to lil ole me..."
Too bad for all their brains, these economical wizards apparently never read "How to Win Friends and Influence People." Really must be tough being the Best Player on the Losing Team. Having all the answers, and nothing collective to show for it.
No matter how many prizes you might pick up for your work and all.
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