Oh Gelman!

Cherrypicking the past (I remember a Mass. liberal named Dukakis! *)... but missing out on today. (Where exactly are voters going to go? Obama??)

When November arrives, the election is likely to be close, and will depend on economic conditions, just as the experts have said all along.

If my scenario comes to pass, I expect we’ll be hearing a lot in the spring and summer about Romney’s political savvy, and then when the inevitable narrowing of the polls comes in the fall, we’ll hear all about the ineptitude of his campaign. Really, though, it will just be voters working out where he stands on the issues.

Something similar happened in 1988. Out-party candidate Michael Dukakis...

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* I don't think the likes of liberal Susan Estrich is advising Mitt Romney's campaign, so you can start with one serious distinction there...

ADDED: Does it ever seem to others that there is an abundance of Jewish political pundits making political predictions? Wouldn't that skew the analysis, the numbers you think you're seeing where you're at, but don't take into account perhaps how other minds think and what they value across the country too?

Which is one way of saying, I think the "non-Christian Momon" fear meme is way overplayed in Jewish eyes. They (the black, jewish and other minority political analysts) perhaps see things that aren't there to the rest of us. It only gets offensive when they insist their view or longterm eyesight is the better. The "correct" one.